Industry Observation: Cotton Planting Area In Turkey Is Expected To Decrease After The Earthquake

According to the latest report issued by the American Agricultural Counselor, the earthquake on February 6, 2023 has seriously damaged the Turkish cotton yarn and textile production center in the Kahramaras region, but Turkey's textile industry is now in the process of recovery. In 2023/24, the cotton planting area in Turkey is expected to decrease due to the decline of cotton price and insufficient cotton planting income in this year. The cotton output is expected to be 735000 tons and the consumption is expected to be 900000 tons.

Kahramaras Province is the largest cotton yarn production area in Turkey, followed by Gaziantep Province, whose total cotton yarn production accounts for half of Turkey's national production. Affected by the earthquake, many mills are unable to sustain their production at present. Some mills need 2-3 months to restart production, others need more than six months to rebuild, and the most severely damaged ones need one year to recover. In addition to plant equipment, the lack of personnel is also a major problem.

According to the report, the cotton planting area in Turkey in 2023/24 is expected to be 420000 hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, and the cotton output is expected to be 735000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The main reasons for the decrease in planting area this year are the decline in cotton prices, the continuous rise in production costs, and the continuous drought in cotton producing areas. It is understood that after the earthquake, more arable land will be used to grow food crops to ensure the food and feed supply in the disaster area. Due to the damage of the cotton mills in the disaster area, cotton farmers believe that the demand for cotton has decreased, and the cotton mills have no ability to buy cotton in response to the disaster.

According to the report, the cotton consumption in 2022/23 is expected to be 1.4 million tons, which is 7% less than the forecast in November last year. The destruction of the textile industry caused by the earthquake, the reduction of demand for European buyers caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the deterioration of the domestic economic environment, and high inflation have all led to the reduction of cotton consumption.

In 2022, Turkey's ready to wear exports will reach US $21.2 billion, up 5% year on year, and its textile and raw material exports will reach US $10.4 billion, up 4% year on year, creating the largest growth in Turkey's textile and clothing industry. In general, textiles account for 12.5% of Turkey's exports, which is one of the most important components of the country's exports.

Turkey's yarn production capacity is about 8-8.5 million spindles, ranking the top five in the world in terms of yarn production and the sixth in terms of garment production. In 2023/24, Turkey's cotton import volume is expected to be 900000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, mainly due to the reduction of yarn output caused by the earthquake and the large cotton inventory carried forward last year. However, Turkey's cotton production is still insufficient, and it will still be the main force in the import market in the future. In recent years, Turkish textile mills have upgraded their equipment and technology to improve product quality and reduce production costs. In the long run, Turkish cotton consumption has a growing trend.