National Bureau Of Statistics: China'S Purchasing Manager Index Rebounded In May

On May 31, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In May, the purchasing manager index of manufacturing industry, the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index rose simultaneously, reaching 49.6%, 47.8% and 48.4%, respectively. Although lower than the critical point, they were significantly higher than 2.2%, 5.9% and 5.7% of the previous month. It shows that the recent situation of health events and the changes of international situation have a great impact on the economic operation. However, with the effective coordination of health incident prevention and control and economic and social development, the economic prosperity level of China has improved compared with April.

1. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry rebounded

In May, the resumption of work and production in the areas greatly affected by health events was gradually promoted, and the PMI of manufacturing industry rose to 49.6% from the low base level in April. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 industries with PMI in the expansion range increased from 9 in the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry showed positive changes.

(1) both sides of production and demand have recovered. The production index and new order index were 49.7% and 48.2% respectively, up 5.3% and 5.6% compared with the previous month, indicating that the production and demand of the manufacturing industry have recovered to varying degrees, but the recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened. From the industry situation, the production index of chemical fiber, rubber and plastic products, special equipment, automobile and other industries was more than 10.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, rising to the expansion range, and the production activities of enterprises were accelerated; The index of new orders in paper-making, printing, cultural, educational, sports, entertainment products, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries returned to the expansion range, and the market demand rebounded.

(2) the price index continued to fall. The purchasing price of raw materials continued to narrow by 8.0% compared with the purchasing price of raw materials, which was still higher than that of the raw material industry by 8.0%. Among them, the purchasing price index of main raw materials in paper printing, culture, education, sports, entertainment products, petroleum coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, medicine and other industries continued to be at a high level of above 60.0%, and the enterprise's raw material purchasing cost pressure was still high. The ex factory price index was 49.5%, which was 4.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and fell to the contraction range for the first time in the year, indicating that the overall level of sales prices of manufacturing products fell. Among them, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, metal products and other industries were less than 45.0%.

(3) the PMI of enterprises of all sizes rebounded at the same time. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.0%, 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and returned to the expansion range. The production index and new order index were 52.5% and 50.7%, respectively, which were 2.8 and 2.5 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry as a whole. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises were 49.4% and 46.7% respectively, higher than 1.9% and 1.1% of the previous month. Although the prosperity level has improved, it is still below the critical point.

The survey results show that a series of policies recently issued to break through the blocking points between logistics and the upstream and downstream of the industry have achieved remarkable results. In May, the proportion of enterprises reflecting poor logistics transportation decreased by 8.0 percentage points compared with the previous month. However, it is still necessary to continue to do a good job in logistics to ensure the stability of the industrial chain supply chain.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities rebounded significantly

In May, the non manufacturing business activity index was 47.8%, 5.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the prosperity level of non manufacturing industry improved significantly.

(1) the prosperity of the service industry rebounded. In May, the overall national health events showed a steady downward trend. The business activity index of the service industry was 47.1%, higher than 7.1% of the previous month. The prosperity of the service industry recovered quickly, but it was still lower than the level of the same period in previous years. In terms of industry situation, 17 of the 21 industries surveyed showed higher business activity index than that of the previous month. Among them, retail, railway transportation, air transportation, postal service, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries were in the expansion range, and the total business volume increased month on month; The business activity index of accommodation, leasing, business services and other industries continued to stay at a low level below 40.0%, and the market activity continued to be low. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities was 55.2%, which was 2.2% higher than that of the previous month, and rose to a higher prosperity range. It shows that with the gradual effective control of health events, the implementation of various policies and measures such as stabilizing growth and stabilizing market entities to ensure employment has been implemented, and the confidence of service enterprises has increased.

(2) the construction industry continues to expand. The business activity index of the construction industry was 52.2%, lower than 0.5% of the previous month, and it still maintained the expansion trend. Among them, the business activity index and new order index of civil engineering and construction industry were 62.7% and 59.1%, respectively, which were 1.7% and 6.8% higher than that of the previous month, and both continued to rise on the higher base level of last month, indicating that the recent infrastructure construction has continued to advance, providing strong support for stable growth.

3. The comprehensive PMI output index recovered

In May, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.4%, 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that China's enterprise production and operation prosperity level has recovered. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 49.7% and 47.8% respectively.