"Medicine + Liquor" Shuangsha Causes Long-Term Fluctuation And Upward Trend Of A Share Adjustment

It's another Friday of ups and downs.

On August 20, the three A-share indexes opened low and went low, and the Shanghai composite index once lost 3400 points in the afternoon. By the end of the day, the Shanghai composite index was down more than 1.10%, the Shenzhen composite index was down 1.61%, and the gem index was down 2.61%.

"Mao index" related stocks ushered in a heavy setback, taking medicine and drinking all collapsed, the king of Guizhou Maotai fell more than 4%, once fell to 1525 yuan / share“ The drop limit of "yaomao" Hengrui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was lower than expected, which led to the collective decline of a + H share pharmaceutical and medical sector; Medical equipment "big brother" Mindray medical fell 17.05%, evaporation nearly 70 billion yuan a day.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, as of August 20, the main capital has been in a state of net outflow for 12 consecutive trading days, and the northward fund has also sold a large amount of 10.816 billion yuan, with a net sales of more than 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days.

"At present, the market is still dominated by the stock game, and the fund profit taking phenomenon appears in the target with a large increase in the early stage, and the index will continue to fluctuate in the short term." Shanxi securities combined with the performance of service industry consumption peak season in September and October of previous years, service industry related consumption will rebound, and A-share related themes may bottom out. In the long run, the overall valuation of A-share is still at a low level, the technology industry continues to maintain a high growth rate, and there is still room for recovery of consumption themes. The overall fundamentals of a share are strongly supported, and the long-term upward trend of the index continues.

The Mao index collapsed

On August 20, there was a "bloodbath" in China capital stocks overnight, and A-share big white horse suffered a heavy setback on August 20.

In the morning of the same day, a notice on holding a symposium on liquor market order Supervision issued by the price supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision and administration came out on the market.

Liquor stocks were defeated at the beginning. By the end of the market, Jiugui Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu were close to the limit of decline. Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye plummeted by more than 7%. Maotai, Guizhou Province, also fell by more than 4.44%. The liquor making and beverage index, which has continued to decline in recent years, has plummeted by nearly 6%.

At the same time, the pharmaceutical sector also encountered Waterloo.

On the evening of August 19, the semi annual report released by Hengrui pharmaceutical showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 13.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.58%, and a net profit of 2.668 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate of net profit was the lowest in 18 years.

Due to the negative performance of Hengrui pharmaceutical, the stock price has been cut down compared with this year's high. The whole medical and health care sector started the mode of killing and falling. Mindray medical fell 17.05% and evaporated nearly 70 billion yuan a day. Leading stocks such as Tongce medical and yaomingkant fell sharply.

In fact, the gold track in the past is hard to escape today.

Haitian flavor industry, Hikvision, China's China immunity, golden dragon fish, aimike, etc. have a large withdrawal.

Net outflow of main funds for 12 consecutive days

According to the statistics of the three parties, on August 20, the net outflow of main funds was 62.697 billion yuan, which had been in a net outflow state for 12 consecutive trading days.

Among them, the main capital outflow of Shanghai stock market was 26.49 billion yuan, and that of gem was 16.99 billion yuan.

In terms of industry capital flow, the net outflow of main capital of pharmaceutical manufacturing, medical industry and wine making industry ranked top, with 7.912 billion yuan, 7.754 billion yuan and 6.727 billion yuan respectively.

In terms of stocks, the main capital outflow is Mindray medical, Wuliangye and Hengrui medicine.

The net sales volume of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion, which was the fourth single net outflow of more than 10 billion in the year. Among them, the net sales of Shanghai Stock connect and Shenzhen Stock connect were 6.236 billion yuan and 4.58 billion yuan respectively.

According to the latest data, although private equity fund consolidation positions to stop falling, but 10 billion private placement is still reducing positions.

According to master data of private placement network portfolio, as of August 6, the latest position index of 10 billion private placement was 82.63%, down 0.20% month on month. Specifically, 70.70% of the 10 billion level private placement positions exceeded 80%, 19.40% of the 10 billion level private placement positions were between 50% and 80%, and only 1.97% of the 10 billion level private placement positions were less than 20%.

Dacheng Fund believes that the superimposed overseas liquidity tightening expectations are intensified, and the current market risk appetite is reduced.

In terms of macro liquidity, according to the meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, most U.S. officials believe that taper should be started at the end of this year or early next year, and the global liquidity margin is weakening; In terms of micro liquidity, the net outflow of Beishang capital was nearly 20 billion yuan, which reduced the chips in the market. In addition, today's listing of China Telecom has also caused a certain "siphon" effect at the micro liquidity level. On the other hand, the change of policy leads to the decrease of market risk preference. In addition, economic data released on Monday also fell short of expectations. Numerator and denominator "double kill" led to A-share crash.

Where is the market bright spot?

It is worth mentioning that China Telecom, which was listed and traded on August 20, ranked first in the net inflow of main funds.

Although the stock price was close to breaking out in the early trading, there was a wave of money going long in the near midday. In the afternoon, the stock rose sharply, closing up 34.88%, and trading volume exceeded 20 billion yuan in the whole day.

Since the beginning of this year, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom have withdrawn from the U.S. and will join the A-share market. The market believes that the value revaluation of the three operators is also expected to come. Many analysts believe that this can enable A-share investors to fully share the market dividend of the rapid and stable growth of the telecommunications industry. At the same time, with the help of A-share market, the three major operators will play a more significant role in promoting the whole communication industry.

Guan Qingyou, chief economist of the Financial Research Institute, said that China Telecom's A-share issue price was 4.53 yuan per share, while its Hong Kong stock price was only HK $2.93 per share, with a premium rate of 84%. At the initial stage of China Telecom's IPO, the current market was small, and many theme funds needed to be allocated to China Telecom. The impact of China Telecom's listing on the A-share market was limited. "It is suggested that in the future, more attention should be paid to the oversold secondary shares on the gem and the low-priced stocks on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen. This is the last depression of A-shares, and investors should not miss the last opportunity to dig for gold."

In addition, the new energy track is also relatively resistant to falls. Although Ningde times, BYD, Longji shares and other strong shocks, they have been rising since this year.

"Now market sentiment is ebbing, leading to a downward valuation." Hu Yu, partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo Asset Management Co., said that the core of the recent market is to kill valuation, and there is the possibility of capital return after the US stock market bubble burst.

Dacheng Fund believes that if we take a long-term view, although the short-term market as a whole is still in the period of shock and consolidation, a shares may come out of the market of first restraining and then rising. First of all, the U.S. failed to recover. Even if the interest rate of U.S. bonds rose due to the tightening expectation of taper policy and the increase of bond issuance in August, it is normal for risk-free interest rates to remain low, which will not have a significant impact on a shares. Secondly, the epidemic situation at home and abroad swept through again, and the domestic economic recovery power weakened. Finally, in terms of funds, the recovery of fund issuance and the regular issuance of RMB 150-200 billion per month will also provide support for the liquidity of the stock market.