200 Billion Yuan Of Market Value Evaporated In Five Days: What Can The New Force "Three Swordsmen" Take To Support The "Myth" Of Trillion Market Value?

Recently, the new force of car making has successively released the sales data of November. Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile and ideal automobile continue to set new monthly sales records, and the "three swordsmen" of the new car making forces of China general stock company continue to occupy the first camp.

However, after the sales data were released on December 1, the share prices of Weilai and Xiaopeng both fell by more than 10%. Weilai's share price fell 10.23% to US $45.36 per share and its market value fell to US $61.19 billion, failing to maintain the position of No.1 in the market value of Chinese auto companies. At the same time, the market value of Xiaopeng fell from a high of US $38352 million to US $38774 million. On the same day, ideal car shares fell 3.14% to $34.86. Overnight, the market value of the three car companies evaporated more than 12 billion US dollars (about 80 billion yuan).

On December 2, Weilai, Xiaopeng and idealized opened at a low price and plunged sharply. Only 10 minutes after the opening, the stock prices of the three auto companies fell by more than 10%. However, at the end of the day, Weilai rose 5.78% to $47.98 per share, Xiaopeng Motor Co. rose 6.95% to $56, and ideal automobile fell 0.32% to close at $34.75.

The higher than expected sales performance does not seem to have enough stimulating effect on the stock prices of the three new auto makers. In fact, the stock price of the "Three Musketeers", a new force in car making with a total market value of more than 1 trillion yuan, began to fall at the end of November after all the way running. In the five trading days since November 24, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal stock prices have fallen by 16.12%, 24.82% and 27.15% respectively, and the market value has evaporated by nearly 200 billion yuan. The carnival is no longer there, but the bubble is still there.

Sales continued to soar

On December 1, the data released by Weilai automobile showed that in November, Weilai automobile delivered 5291 new cars, which continued to be the first in the new force of car making, which was also the breakthrough of 5000 vehicles by Weilai after October. Among them, the sales volume of Weilai ES6 was 2386, that of Weilai ec6 was 1518, and that of Weilai es8 was 1387.

In the first November of this year, Weilai delivered 36721 vehicles. From the current trend, Weilai's annual sales will exceed 40000.

According to the data released by Xiaopeng automobile, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng automobile in November was 4224, a year-on-year increase of 342%; in the first November, the cumulative delivery of Xiaopeng automobile was 21341, with a year-on-year increase of 87%.

From the perspective of vehicle segmentation, in November, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng P7 was 2732, an increase of 30% compared with the previous month. Since the delivery was started at the end of June this year, the cumulative delivery of Xiaopeng P7 has reached 11371 vehicles; in November, the monthly delivery volume of Xiaopeng G3 was 1492, which is the best monthly performance of Xiaopeng G3 this year.

In terms of ideal cars, 4646 ideal ones were delivered in November, up 25.8% month on month. In the first 11 months, 26498 vehicles were delivered. As the ideal one is the only model for sale of ideal car, from the data, the ideal one is expected to become the single model with the highest delivery volume of the new force of car making this year.

The market performance of several new second tier car makers in November was also good. Among them, the sales volume of Weima automobile in November was 3018, with a year-on-year increase of 174.6%. In the first November, the cumulative sales volume of Weima Ex5 was nearly 20000; in November, the sales volume of Nezha automobile was 2122, with a year-on-year increase of 92%; in the first November, the cumulative sales volume was 13424, with a year-on-year increase of 44%; and in November, 2032 new cars were sold, with a month on month increase of 17%. Among them, the sales volume of zero running T03 is 1927 units, with 7285 units sold since its listing.

On the whole, with the scale growth of China's new energy vehicle market and the improvement of brand and channel layout of new power automobile enterprises, most of the new automobile manufacturing forces which have mass produced and sold new cars have achieved good growth this year, especially in the second half of this year, and their market position is gradually stable.

Policy dividend

In the magic November, Tesla, Weilai, ideality and Xiaopeng are performing one Carnival after another.

The soaring share price and the market value of the new energy vehicle concept stocks are favored by the capital market. The reason is closely related to the deepening and irreversible trend of electric and intelligent automobile. On the one hand, the introduction of a series of new energy policies at home and abroad is good; on the other hand, the three quarterly reports of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal have boosted the confidence of investors to a certain extent.

At present, more than 12 countries and 25 regions around the world have announced or formulated a timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, among which Europe is the most obvious. Previously, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, chairman of the China Association for science and technology, and chairman of the world new energy vehicle conference, pointed out at the 2020 world new energy vehicle conference that, first of all, strict carbon emission regulations in Europe force enterprises to transform. If automobile enterprises fail to meet the standards, they will be fined 95 euro per gram. Secondly, European countries are taking the lead in increasing the amount and scope of subsidies for new energy vehicles in the process of economic recovery Around.

With the approaching of carbon emission requirements, the pace of electrification in Europe is further accelerated. On November 18, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote that Britain would stop the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars and trucks by 2030 and allow the sale of hybrid cars and trucks. It's ahead of May 2032. In addition, the election of Biden, known as "the largest fan of presidential candidates in history", has also added a fire to the pursuit of new energy vehicle companies by US stocks. Biden's package includes infrastructure construction, additional subsidies for car purchase, planned government procurement and tax incentives.

China has also released a number of favorable policies. On November 2, the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) was officially released, which clearly proposed that the sales of new energy vehicles would account for 20% in 2025, and 2035 pure electric vehicles would become the mainstream of sales. On November 18, the executive meeting of the State Council made plans to boost large-scale consumption, key consumption and promote the release of rural consumption potential, which pointed out that it was necessary to stabilize and expand automobile consumption. In addition, Hubei, Haikou, Hefei and other local governments have successively introduced policies to stimulate automobile consumption.

The policy direction makes the new energy vehicle enterprises once become the hot topic of capital pursuit, and there is no difference for a time.

Can the myth of market value continue?

In November, the three brothers in the US stock market successively released the three quarterly reports for 2020. The sales volume increased, the gross profit turned to positive, and the revenue increased sharply year on year, and the stock price soared.

Gross profit rate has always been regarded as an important indicator to judge whether the new forces of car making have hematopoietic capacity. In the third quarter of 2020, Xiaopeng realized the first change of gross profit rate from negative to positive, which was 4.6%, and the three brothers all achieved positive gross profit rate. Weilai has achieved positive gross profit rate for two consecutive quarters, 14.5% in the third quarter, and the ideal gross profit rate of automobile has reached 19.8%, second only to Tesla.

The gross profit rate of the three auto companies turned positive or related to their delivery scale. The data shows that the delivery volume of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal in the third quarter increased significantly, reaching 12200, 8578 and 8660 respectively. Among them, Weilai has achieved sales of more than 10000 for two consecutive quarters.

It is worth mentioning that, on November 23, the "three swordsmen" of the new force of car making all rose more than 10% on that day, and the share price reached a record high. Overnight, the market value of the three companies increased by more than $26 billion. Among them, the market value of Weilai reached 75.44 billion US dollars (about 494.73 billion yuan), surpassing Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes Benz, and ranked No.5 in the market value of global automobile enterprises. For the first time, the market value of Xiaopeng automobile broke through the $50 billion mark, reaching $51.97 billion (about 341.03 billion yuan), surpassing Honda and ranking among the top ten automobile enterprises in the world. Ideally, with a market value of US $36.5 billion (about 239.52 billion yuan), it surpasses Ford and ranks 14th in the global market value and 5th in China. At that time, the total market value of the three new forces of car making exceeded one trillion yuan.

However, both inside and outside the industry, the "myth" of the market value of China's new car making forces has always been controversial.

Why did the electric vehicle stock soar? Zhang Ying, partner of Jingwei venture capital, said in an article that she was very surprised by the stock price rise in such a short period of time. If she tried to find a reason, it might be because the market suddenly recognized the long-term potential of electric vehicles, China and Europe vigorously promoted electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, the next US President Biden strongly supported new energy, and China capital stocks increasingly became an external "science and Technology Innovation Board" ”And so on.

"The shares of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideality have soared, and their market values have reached new highs again. This can't help but say that all three have strong Internet gene, product technology and business model innovation. " On November 26, Chen Qingtai, chairman of China's 100 member Electric Vehicle Association, said.

However, after the stock price falls, can the "myth" of new forces of car making continue?

There are two very different attitudes in the market. One view is that China's new energy vehicle market has a broad prospect, and the three leading enterprises have a good development prospect in the future. Another point of view is that the current actual situation of the new car manufacturing forces does not match the high market value, and the future business prospects are also facing different degrees of challenges.

"There must be a bubble in the capital market, because its price deviates from its value. The question is whether it can eliminate the bubble by improving its business." Some people in the industry pointed out in an interview with the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

Wu Baojun, the co-founder and President of zerocar, also said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that capital itself is a bubble and an amplifier. The current craze for new cars in the capital market is the prelude to the blowout of the new energy vehicle market. Finally, the industry with real strength will stay.