CPI Rose 0.5% Year-On-Year. What Signals Does The Price Data Release In October?

CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous month——

What are the signals from the price data in October?

Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said at a news conference held recently by the office of the State Council of statistics, in October, the consumer price of the whole country rose by 0.5% year-on-year, 1.2% lower than that in September, and 0.3% lower than that in September. The factory price of industrial producers in China decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, which was the same as that in September and the same month on month.

In October, the supply and price guarantee continued to advance, and the market supply and demand were generally stable. Among them, food prices have changed from up to down. According to the data, in October, food prices fell by 1.8% month on month, affecting the CPI decline of about 0.41%.

Since this year, the fluctuation of pork price has attracted much attention. In October, the production capacity of pigs continued to recover, and the supply of pork continued to improve. The price of pork fell for the first time after 19 months of continuous rise, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. On a month on month basis, pork prices fell by 7.0%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the previous month. The decline of pork price has a direct impact on the decline of CPI.

In addition, the supply of eggs and fresh vegetables was sufficient, and the prices of them dropped by 2.3% and 2.1% respectively on a month on month basis. In some regions, new fruits such as apples and pears went on the market, and the prices of fresh fruits rose slightly by 1.8%, 5.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 0.5%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The CPI rose by about 2.0% over the previous month, which affected the rise of CPI by about 2.0%. "The year-on-year growth rate fell more, mainly due to the higher base of comparison in the same period last year, the decrease of tail warping factors and the change of pork price from up to down." Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics.

In terms of industrial product prices, with the continuous recovery of domestic industrial production, industrial production prices in October were generally stable.

From the month on month, PPI rose slightly to flat. According to the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there were 12 industrial sectors with price rising, 3 less than the previous month, 18 declining, 1 decreasing, and 10 flat, increasing 4. Among them, due to the impact of the temperature drop in the north, the heating demand gradually increased, and the prices of coal mining and washing industry, gas production and supply industry increased by 2.1% and 0.4%, respectively; affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil price, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 4.9%, and the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry decreased by 1.6%. On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.1%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 2.7%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; the price of means of living decreased by 0.5%, with a decrease of 0.4%.

Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, told our reporter: "the CPI dropped by a large margin, falling below 1%, mainly because pork prices have changed from growth to decline. Food prices account for a relatively high proportion of CPI composition, which has a great impact on the growth level of CPI. For PPI, it is because of the global spread of the epidemic, which has led to a sharp drop in international commodity prices. "

What is the future price trend? Liu Xiangdong analyzed: "next, the price trend is still likely to fall, but with the gradual recovery of domestic production and demand activities, it is expected that the price trend will have a bottoming out process, and then it is expected to rise, especially the prices of industrial products will gradually rise."