Impact Of Sino US Trade Disputes On Textile Industry And Future Market Analysis

In August 17th,

On the afternoon of 17 July, representatives from various industrial chains of the cotton industry held round table dialogues on some hot issues of current concern. The participants in the dialogue were Mr. Li Qunxian, senior consultant of Zhejiang textiles import and Export Group Co., Ltd., Mr. Ruan Wenjun, President of Vietnam Cotton Textile Association, Mr. Guo Weidong, marketing director of Yida group, and Zhang Yongqiang, general manager of Nantong real trading market.

The current hot issues of enterprise management strategy and so on.

Zhang Xiaoming, chairman of the board of directors.

First, the guests spoke on the impact of Sino US trade disputes on the textile industry.

Guo Weidong: globalization development strategy to deal with the risk of trade war positively

Yida group was founded in 1978. It is an enterprise that has grown up with China's reform and opening up.

At present, Sino US trade war broke out, and many people felt suddenly.

But as a stranger, Yida group has made preparations for this day.

The development trend of Yida group is export-oriented enterprises, whose products are mainly exported, and the United States is also its biggest customer.

In the late 70s of last century, the United States imposed quota management on China's textiles, which restricted the development of China's textile industry and had a certain impact on the export of the group's products.

The group had to start global deployment and set up factories in more than 20 countries with US quotas.

After China's accession to the WTO, the quota system was gradually abolished.

After discussion, the company decided to continue to maintain the strategy of globalization and did not relocate all overseas factories.

At present, Yida group has 3 garment factories in Vietnam, with 7 overseas and 8 enterprises overseas.

Because the company has a deep understanding of the United States, it has made a long-term layout.

Therefore, in dealing with trade war, the ability to resist risks is stronger than unprepared enterprises.

Li Qun first: the impact of Sino US trade war on the textile industry will be smaller than that of other industries.

Once the Sino US trade disputes came out, foreign trade enterprises completed orders before accelerating the completion of the trade, and striving to complete their exports before the trade war took place, so the textile and clothing export achievements in the past two months were good.

But then the new export orders will be affected.

On the whole, trade war is right.

The impact will be smaller than other industries, because many enterprises have already carried out the overseas layout in advance, which can be flexible in the adjustment of product lines, such as the pfer of American orders from domestic factories to foreign factories, and China's orders for other countries.

The prospect of Sino US trade war is hard to judge.

But the time will not be too long. It is expected that in 1 years or more than 1 years, China and the United States will return to the negotiating table.

Because China's exports to the United States reach US $505 billion a year, it takes a long time to find substitutes. Therefore, trade war is a matter of two wars. It will also affect the lives of Chinese and American people. For a long time, Americans will protest against the pressure imposed by the US government.

So it is not expected to take a long time.

But if the fight is long and serious, it is possible that the global economic crisis will erupt.

The Sino US trade war is not only a matter of two countries. If China can not export its products to the United States, it will not be able to import the raw materials needed. It will surely cause global effects. Therefore, we hope to resolve them in a short time.

Ruan Wenjun: Vietnam will not benefit from Sino US trade war

Vietnam will not benefit too much from trade wars, and may even get hurt.

There are three reasons.

1, China has a large supply volume, accounting for 36% of the global textile supply chain.

Vietnamese textile production capacity is limited, unable to carry a large number of orders pferred from China.

Unless a large number of new factories are built, the capacity can be rapidly increased.

But in this case, once the Sino US trade war is closed, how can we deal with the new capacity? Therefore, it is also facing certain risks.

2, Vietnam's industrial chain is incomplete, fabrics and textile accessories are imported from China and have strong dependence on China.

3 the trade war made the RMB depreciated by about 8%-10%, causing Vietnam's direct export of cotton yarn to China.

Zhang Yongqiang: solving the financing problems of textile enterprises

China real trading is a subsidiary company of China's supply and marketing group.

There are well-known cotton giants in China, such as China cotton group and national cotton trading market.

The real paction is equivalent to the extension of the cotton industry chain, which solves the biggest pain point of textile enterprises: financing difficulties and financing.

Because financial enterprises often only provide services to large enterprises.

At present, 19 warehouses have been set up in the real world paction, which can provide warehousing and pledge for textile enterprises. The rate of capital pledge is as high as 70%, and it can be calculated on a daily basis.

It also solves the problem of picking up goods by developing automation system.

Next, Mr. Li Qunxian analyzed the cotton market in the second half of the year.

At present, there are several points to support domestic cotton prices: 1.ICE is at a high level.

At present, foreign cotton prices are high.

Low, and demand gap, as long as ICE does not fall, it will form strong support for Zheng cotton.

2. exchange rate.

The devaluation of the renminbi has led to the high cost of imported cotton, which is the second support.

3. expect.

It is expected that the market will have a great impact. In 2016, cotton supply was in short supply, but we expected cotton prices to fall, which would result in a fall of less than 10 thousand.

In that year, the total output of cotton was 20 million 940 thousand tons, and this year it is expected to be 26 million 800 thousand tons.

4. point sale.

Every time a big drop occurs, a large number of spot prices are traded.

Will these factors in the future be enough to support the continued rise of cotton?

1. ICE is supported by the USDA's global consumer expectations, the US cotton monthly shipment report and India MSP.

In the past 8 years, the average cotton consumption in the world has been 24 million 500 thousand tons, and the prediction by the US Department of agriculture is 27 million 760 thousand tons.

It seems that the enthusiasm of cotton consumption is rising. In fact, there has been overbought. At present, the inventory of cotton in the global textile mill is high, so is China.

At the end of July, cotton business inventories were 1 million tons higher than that of the same period last year.

Although the MSP of India is at a high level, it is a support. But because India's acquisition is not sold every other year, it must be sold in the current year, so it will fall later.

2, exchange rate.

This is difficult to judge, but it is expected that the depreciation will be stopped temporarily after 7, and the state will not allow the exchange rate to depreciate indefinitely.

And after the depreciation of the renminbi, the yarn exported to India by China, Indonesia and Vietnam will be blocked, so the enthusiasm to buy US cotton will also decline.

3. Anticipation: at present, we all think that the price will rise as the global / China inventory consumption ratio decreases.

This reason is not sufficient, because reserve cotton should not be included in the inventory consumption ratio.

Outside China, the stock consumption ratio of cotton is 60, which is at a record high.

4, point price sales.

Now traders basically have goods in hand, and spot sales are hard to sell. Maybe selling at a point price is the only good thing to sell.

On the whole, within a year

The possibility of a fall is much greater than that of rising.