Domestic Demand For Polyester Is Coming To An End, Pressure On Device Maintenance Is Increasing.

With the continuous decline of international crude oil prices, domestic demand for polyester is coming to an end.

The recent chemical products PTA appeared 7 consecutive Yin, the decline in form.

If the stock and market are not good enough, the weak market will continue.

The middle pressure level is constantly shifting down. Reference to the pressure level near 4850 is within the week.

Last Friday, the United States announced that the non-agricultural employment change in May was 138 thousand, far less than expected 182 thousand.

Although the non farm employment data in recent March have been weakening, inflation is getting closer to the policy target. The interest rate increase process will not change but will only adjust the pace of raising interest rates.

At the same time, President Trump also said that the United States should withdraw from the Paris agreement, while France, Germany and Italy issued a joint statement to reject Trump's proposal that the Paris agreement be amended.

The weakness of crude oil will continue to decline.

The agreement between OPEC and non OPEC countries in May 25th has only been extended for nine months and has not increased production.

Shale oil output in the United States continues to grow.

Oil production has reached 9 million 320 thousand barrels per day, which is only 3% less than the peak 9 million 600 thousand barrels per day. It is expected that with the new drilling gradually entering the mining, next year will reach 10 million barrels per day.

The increase of US crude oil mainly comes from shale oil. With the progress of technology, the average total cost of shale oil has reached US $40, and some suppliers even reached US $28.

As of June 2nd, the number of active oil drilling machines in the United States increased by 11 units, to a total of 733 units, once again refresh the new high since April 17, 2015.

This data has risen for 20 weeks, more than two times the number of 325 units in the same period last year.

Nigeria and Libya still have the right to cut production in the production reduction conference. The output of Libya crude oil has reached 827 thousand barrels per day, representing an increase of about 300 thousand barrels per day compared to the 528 thousand barrels / day of OPEC's last production cut.

Shale oil production in the US has increased by about 900 thousand barrels per day, which has already offset the OPEC reduction.

OPEC discussed the issue of further production cuts during last week's meeting. If stocks remain high and continue to suppress oil prices, they may reconsider the proposal.

domestic

Profits continued low, the current device overhaul pressure increased, overhaul reduced supply.

In May 2017, domestic PTA inspection and maintenance strength weakened, and in May 2017, domestic PTA manufacturers began to load at 67.17%, an increase of 0.11%.

Domestic main petrochemical shutdown, Liwan Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year installation failure due to the April 30th parking repair, postponed to June 12th restart; Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand tons / year installed in April 24th to stop maintenance, delayed restart plan; Ningbo Yisheng 2 million tons / year installed in May 24th to stop vehicle maintenance, planned maintenance for 10-12 days; Yangzi Petrochemical 650 thousand tons / year installed in May 28th parking repair, plan to resume in July 10th.

In terms of peripherals, India's credibility is 1 million 800 thousand tons.

6-7 months will be shut down for 3 weeks to repair, the specific restart date has not yet been disclosed.

India integrity 2 million 250 thousand tons PX new device began commissioning operation at the end of November last year, at present the device load is maintained near 70%, it is reported that in the next few days, manufacturers will gradually increase the device to full load.

Yangzi Petrochemical's 850 thousand ton PX plant has been shut down since May 28th. The factory plans to stop for about 45 days, and plans to restart it near July 10th.

South Korea's SK 1 million ton PX plant in Ulsan was affected by device failure. It stopped at 21 pm on May. It is reported that the device has been restarted in May 27th, and the device is now running at 6-7 load.

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