When The Economic Highlights Pick Up, Investment Growth Also Needs Policy To Give Some Strength.

According to a series of 13 issued by the National Bureau of statistics, analysts believe that the current downward pressure on the economy continues to ensure that 7% of economic growth still needs steady growth policy force.

Industrial production rebounded slightly in August, but the pressure remained. Investment growth continued to fall, but the structure was optimized and the consumer market stabilized.

Industrial output has not improved significantly.

In August, the added value of above scale industries increased by 6.1% in real terms, up 0.1 percentage points from July, but lower than market expectations.

CIC's fixed income report said that although the base of industrial added value was relatively low last year, due to the weaker industrial output ring, the rebound in industrial added value was slower than expected.

before

It was announced that the first 28 days of August, the growth rate of electricity consumption was about 3% year-on-year, but the monthly total electricity generation released by the Statistics Bureau was only 1% year on year, mainly because two data statistics were different.

From the data of power generation, the consumption of coal in the six major power plants decreased sharply in the first ten days of September, and the industrial added value increased or dropped to below 6% in September.

From the industry category, black metals rose from 4.1% in July to 5.4%, non-ferrous metals dropped from 13% in July to 11.7%, non-metallic minerals rose from 6.6% in July to 7.7%, and the industry output in the middle and upper reaches rebounded; universal equipment fell to 3.8% from 4% in July, special equipment from 4.8% in July to 5.2%, electrical machinery from 7.5% in July to 6.9%, production from -0.5% in July to 0.2%, downstream industry output continued to decline, mainly related to new product release of related electronic products.

The delivery value of industrial exports dropped from -2.5% in July to -3.1%, and industrial exports continued to be weak, consistent with customs cargo trade data.

Under the background of high inventory of commercial housing, the real estate is not well conducted from sales to investment.

Infrastructure investment needs to be overweight

Fixed asset investment increased by 10.9% in nominal terms in 1-8 months, down 0.3 percentage points from the first 7 months.

In the 1-8 month, the investment in real estate development increased by 3.5% compared with the same period in July, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous one.

People's livelihood securities macro research institute researcher Zhu Zhenxin and Zhang Yu believe that in August, property sales rebounded slightly due to factors such as price recovery, demand overdraft, off-season and other factors.

And population pressure, real estate investment will remain weak, and the real estate golden age is gone forever.

The growth rate of manufacturing investment is 8.9% and the former value is 9.2%.

From the point of view of fine items, the high-end equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturing and aerospace pportation industries perform well, which may be related to the state's encouragement of equipment going out, and upstream chemical raw materials and metal processing industry continue to drag on.

Overall, PPI continues downward, indicating that traditional industrial overcapacity has not been substantially alleviated. In the future, the trend of manufacturing industry is mainly to eliminate inventory, capacity and deleveraging. Infrastructure investment faces the squeeze of land leasing and the weak fiscal revenue, but the recent policy underpinning infrastructure situation has become more apparent. There are a series of policy support such as guarantee construction projects, allow new loans, standardize PPP, promote underground pipeline network construction, and support the steady growth of the Ministry of finance. However, in order to ensure economic growth of 7%, infrastructure investment needs to continue to be overweight.

Consumption is stable and good.

In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.8% over the nominal period, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month. This has become the biggest monthly increase this year, but mainly Cl{displa offer. After deducting prices, the actual growth rate is 10.4%, flat in July, lower than in June.

"The consumer goods market is stable in August," explains Lin Tao, a senior statistician of the Trade Statistics Division of the National Bureau of statistics.

Commodity retail and catering consumption are speeding up. New formats and consumer upgrading products have increased rapidly. For example, communication equipment and online retailing continue to maintain a rapid growth of about 30%, which contributes greatly to the growth of retail sales.

According to the fixed income report of CICC, daily consumption has kept steady growth from the sub item data, but the growth rate dropped slightly compared with July, such as clothing, shoes and hats and daily necessities.

Automobile consumption has picked up from a low level, resulting from the price promotions of car dealers. However, the negative growth of automobile output in August shows that the pressure of inventory is still larger.

Driven by the high demand for real estate sales in recent months, real estate related consumption (home appliances, furniture, construction and decoration materials) has picked up slightly faster than in July.

Besides,

Consumption growth has picked up, but it is mainly affected by last year's low base. This year, the decline in gold prices also has a positive driving effect.