What Will The Renminbi Depreciate?

1.

What is the layout? UBS Securities pointed out that if the RMB devaluation in the near future, the A share market may be under pressure.

Overseas experience shows that every round of currency depreciation in emerging markets is accompanied by capital outflows and stock market pullbacks.

In terms of industry sectors, the financial and real estate industries tend to be hit most deeply.

At the same time, the depreciation of the RMB may lead to temporary capital outflow.

As more bonds, trusts and real estate debt defaults are emerging, foreign investors' concerns about China's macro economy may be enhanced, resulting in temporary capital outflows.

UBS points out that the depreciation of the RMB will affect the balance sheet and profit and loss statement of listed companies.

From the perspective of balance sheet, civil aviation and real estate sectors may suffer the biggest negative effects.

If there are any disadvantages, is there any benefit from the depreciation of the RMB?

In terms of industry,

The export oriented industries will undoubtedly benefit from the depreciation of the RMB, and the textile and clothing, toys, shoes and caps will be the biggest beneficiaries.

The textile and garment industry is highly dependent on exports. The devaluation of the RMB will help companies reduce costs and improve product competitiveness. Enterprises will get more orders, and on the other hand, it will help export enterprises gain foreign exchange earnings.

The depreciation of the renminbi means that the purchasing power of foreign currencies will increase, which will further stimulate consumption and benefit the toy industry.

Such as good, Gao Le shares and so on.

Compared with China

In the leading position of the international market, the household appliance industry also occupies an important position in China's foreign trade industries.

Analysts believe that with the depreciation of the renminbi, many home appliances listed companies in the A share market are also expected to see an increase in export volume.

We can pay attention to the group such as Yi Pu and Mei.

2.

Property: to sell or to wait and see? The renminbi depreciates, and the assets of the large number of real estate will shrink.

There is a "coincidence": the 9 year of the continued appreciation of the renminbi is also the 9 year that China's real estate prices have continued to rise.

In 2005, after the appreciation of the yuan started, there was a clear signal: a long-term appreciation of the US dollar.

In theory, there will be a large number of US dollars entering into China to convert into Renminbi assets to avoid relative depreciation of the US dollar.

When these dollars enter, they exist in a certain form of assets.

Most of them are buying real estate.

One of the reasons for the surge in house prices over the past few years is the appreciation of the renminbi.

In the process of appreciation, people who own real estate are rapidly appreciating assets.

The expectation of real estate appreciation has stimulated more people's desire to buy houses.

If the renminbi depreciates, some investors worry that there will be assets withdrawal from property, especially those that have been pouring into the country from abroad earlier. They will be able to flow out of China because of the depreciation of the renminbi, or they will not dare to enter the Chinese market any more.

The housing green paper published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the urban competitiveness center and the Social Sciences Publishing House (2014~2015), said that the overall Chinese housing market in 2015 will be judged as follows: first, second tier cities will continue to decline in housing prices, and prices in the three or four tier cities will steadily decrease; housing prices will be dominated by soft landings, and there will not be an overall collapse; governments at all levels will launch intensive rescue policies; the purchase restriction policy is expected to fully withdraw; commercial housing inventory backlog will be difficult to sell, and more than half of the future developers will be pferred to the market or disappear in the market.

Therefore, the possibility of falling house prices in the future will be greater. It is not suitable for us to launch at present. The better way is to wait and see.

3.

Foreign currency financial products: can not buy? This year, as the Fed gradually withdrew from the loose monetary policy, the dollar interest rate has risen, and the future continues to rise more expected, so the revenue of US dollar products also rose obviously.

For ordinary citizens, whether the depreciation of RMB is long-standing, at present, the yield of RMB financial products is mostly between 4% and 5%, while the difference between the RMB and the US dollar is at least 2% to 3%.

Of course, for investors with tens of millions of assets, from a long-term perspective, they can appropriately configure overseas products to diversify their assets and effectively avoid risks.