RMB Spot Exchange Rate Rises Three Times

On the 22 day, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar increased slightly for third consecutive trading days.

Market participants said that the latest data on bank settlement and sales in December last year were

The impact is not big. In the context of the RMB exchange rate tends to be balanced, the short-term RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation.

22 days

The middle price of the exchange rate was 6.1247, up 21 basis points over 21 days, and lasted for more than a month, running around 6.12.

Overnight, in the international foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell 0.28% and fell back to the 93 barrier as the early Euro shores chose to cash in before the outcome of the European Central Bank's decision.

On the 22 day of the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market, the renminbi was traded against the US dollar.

With the middle price rising at 6.2100, most of the day was narrowed above the closing price of the day before yesterday, and the market closed at 6.2095, a 20 basis point higher than the closing price of the previous day.

The spot price has risen 108 basis points since the three trading day.

22 days of data released by the foreign exchange bureau showed that in December 2014, the bank sold foreign exchange for fourth months in a continuous deficit, which was expanded to 69 billion 900 million yuan from last month, and the bank's own period of the same period was also recorded for sixth months.

However, Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the safe, pointed out at the press conference of the same day that although there was a certain pressure of outflow in the second half of last year, it did not change the basic pattern of oversupply of foreign exchange and increased foreign exchange reserves throughout the whole year. The pattern of "trade surplus and capital outflow" will become more normalized in the future.

Traders said that because the RMB exchange rate tends to be balanced, it is becoming a consensus of the market. The deficit data did not have a significant impact on yesterday's foreign exchange pactions.

In the wake of the short term improvement of the domestic economy, the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the stability of the middle price, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a narrow trend in the short term atmosphere in the market.

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The euro is facing greater devaluation pressure as the market expects stronger quantitative easing in the future.

In January 15th, the Swiss central bank abruptly renounced the Swiss franc's exchange rate limit for 3 years, allowing the Swiss Franc to rise.

On the day of the announcement, Swiss Franc appreciated nearly 30% against the euro, and the international exchange market was "bloodshed".

In response to the reporter's comment on the possible impact of the euro version QE on the RMB exchange rate, he said that the euro area is the world's major economy and the euro is also the world's major currency, so its macroeconomic policy has a huge spillover effect.

Guan Tao believes that the euro zone's possible "European version of QE" has both advantages and disadvantages to China.

On the one hand, under the normalization of monetary policy in the United States, "Euro version QE" will help to alleviate the tightening effect of QE withdrawal in a certain extent. On the other hand, the differentiation of monetary policy in major economies will affect the exchange rate between major currencies, which will aggravate the oscillation of international financial market, especially the foreign exchange market, and the difficulty of managing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate expectations in emerging markets will also increase.

In addition, Guan Tao stressed that "Euro version QE" is only one of the important external factors that affect the trend of RMB exchange rate. We need to make a comprehensive analysis based on other factors, make overall judgments, make relevant plans to avoid the sharp fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, and maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market.