Textile And Clothing Trends Are Expected To Continue

After more than a year of cold winter, Spin clothing The industry finally showed signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2012, and the fourth quarter market performance, which has been widely worried, has gradually become clear in the strong rebound of national consumer confidence. Exports are showing signs of warmer growth, and terminal consumption is better than market expectations. They are constantly strengthening the expectations of textile and garment industries to stabilize their bottom.

Flush (300033, stock bar) statistics show that the third quarter garment home textile enterprises accounted for more than 60% of the profit making enterprises. Sun Huaibin, a spokesman for the Textile Industry Federation, said in an interview with the China Securities Journal reporter that the four quarter results of garment enterprises and middle reaches textile manufacturers at the end of consumption will be improved due to the warm-up of domestic demand. Zhejiang Merchants Securities and apparel industry analyst Wang Jian It is also believed that the industry has hit bottom and the worst stage is over.

　　 Garment enterprises to warm up the trend of establishment

"The spring river heating duck prophet", the clothing enterprises that can directly feel consumers' consumption desire take the lead in showing signs of warming. As of the three quarterly closing day, in the 39 apparel home textile enterprises, 25 companies rose third quarter net profit over the same period last year, of which *st Far East, search special (002503, stock bar), card slave Road (002656, stock bar), Pathfinder (300005, stock bar) increased by more than 50%.

The data collected by investors in the three quarterly report show that the company achieved a profit of 1 billion 112 million yuan in 1-9 months, an increase of 49.27% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 176 million yuan, an increase of 53.81% over the previous year, and 447 million yuan in the third quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 80 million yuan, an increase of 75.29% over the same period last year. The company said that the company's marketing network expanded rapidly, and the number, size and quality of the stores increased steadily. According to the company's order in autumn and winter 2012, the first three quarters of this year's performance increased considerably compared with the same period last year. CIC believes that the growth of revenue is mainly driven by extension. The company opened nearly 200 stores in the first three quarters, and the number of large shops opened up. In addition, it also developed to two levels, with the average rent decreasing. However, the autumn and winter products of the company did not increase prices, and sales of products were mainly incremental.

Besides the support of listed companies, meso economic data also showed better expectations. The newly released economic data from the National Bureau of statistics has greatly enhanced the market's judgement of the signs of recovery in domestic consumption. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 14.2% in September, and the increase was better than expected.

However, statistics also show that in September clothing consumption prices rose the highest since May, residents' consumption is more cautious, coupled with the higher growth rate of the same period last year. In September, clothing sales resumed growth slowdown after August. Therefore, analysts of Shenyin and Wanguo deduce that retail market stabilization needs time. Shen Wan further pointed out that if the future terminal consumption warming trend is established, the industry will have the possibility of valuation restoration.

　　 Good trend is expected to continue

Zhejiang Merchants Securities analyst Wang Jian believes that the downstream consumer industry relative to the manufacturing recovery cycle has lagged behind, but from September data can be seen signs of warming, coupled with the "eleven" golden week consumer stimulation, the expected consumption data in October will be better than in September.

Under the background that domestic and international economy is not improving in the short term, the fourth quarter of textile manufacturing listed companies is difficult to make a big change compared with the three quarter. Clothes & Accessories Fourth quarter sales growth of listed companies is likely to be slightly better than that of the first three quarters, which will greatly enhance the expectation of 2013 autumn and winter ordering meeting held in March next year. The four quarter investment strategy report issued by Orient Securities pointed out that, from the whole boom level, the textile industry in the fourth quarter of the whole industry is more difficult to have obvious investment opportunities beyond the market, but in the middle of 2013, the industry boom will be significantly improved.

Fourth quarter industry performance is expected to rebound steadily, thanks to the consumption promotion of the Mid Autumn Festival and the longest golden week of the national day, promotional activities of Christmas and new year's day, and the extension of the sales season of spring 2013 (February). According to the survey of the China National Business Information Center, during the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day golden week in 2012, the retail sales volume of 100 large retail enterprises increased by 15.23% over the same period last year.

Orient Securities analyst also said that the Spring Festival in 2013 is in February, so the sales season for brand enterprises will be longer this winter, which is conducive to improving the sales rate in autumn and winter. At the same time, September clothing shoes The PMI index of hat making and feather and down products increased significantly, while the 57.4 index increased by 5.7 over the previous month, indicating that the industry boom is showing signs of warming. It indicates that the growth of retail sales in the fourth quarter may be improved over the first three quarters.