With The Support Of Policy Factors, Cotton Prices Will Be Stronger.

Entering the new cotton year, cotton price trend has once again become the focus of attention.

Because of the downturn in downstream demand, the international cotton prices continued to descend in the previous year, and domestic cotton prices remained stable because of the "bottom up" policy of purchasing and storage.

In September 10th, cotton purchase and storage in 2012/2013 was officially launched.

At the same time, the dumping and storage began in September 3rd.

Throwing storage, storage and storage at the same time, also let the cotton market in September is different from previous years.

With the end of the cotton trading in September 29th, cotton prices will be strengthened with the support of policy factors.

Gradually warming up

In September 10th, the China cotton storage company launched the new cotton temporary purchase and storage in the new year.

In 2012, the provisional purchase and storage price of cotton was set at 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous year.

According to seed cotton padded clothes 37%, cottonseed price 2 yuan / kg ~2.4 yuan / kg and reasonable acquisition processing fee calculation, the corresponding reference price of seed cotton purchase is about 8.4 yuan / kg ~8.7 yuan / kg, which is about 0.2 yuan / kg higher than last year's purchase price.

On September 10th ~12, no deal was made three days before the purchase.

In September 13th, 1400 tons were traded, and 1520 tons were sold in September 14th, and cotton enterprises in Shandong were active.

In September 17th, a turnover of 2760 tons.

Regional volume increased significantly.

In September 20th, a turnover of 16290 tons and a double increase in volume were recorded in the mainland of Xinjiang.

In September 26th, the purchase and storage paction volume was huge, and the total storage capacity reached 170 thousand tons.

In September 29th, the turnover reached 79%, and turnover increased by 24380 tons compared with the previous day.

Among them, the Xinjiang warehouse paction ratio was 92.1%; the inland warehouse turnover rate was 34.3%.

The proportion of Xinjiang cotton entering and storing on a single day accounted for 90% of the total turnover of that day.

By the end of September 29th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 382480 tons in Xinjiang, and 334720 tons in total, and 47760 tons in the mainland.

In contrast, this year's storage is significantly higher than the same period last year.

This year, our national cotton

Under the attack of "internal worries" (domestic consumption is not strong) and "foreign invasion" (the difference between cotton prices and the export demand is shrinking), the operation of the industry continues to deteriorate.

In addition, because of the fluctuation of cotton prices and the excessive spread of cotton prices at home and abroad, the textile enterprises use cotton instead of cotton instead of other raw materials, resulting in a reduction in the use of cotton.

According to the analysis of the people concerned, the demand for cotton in China is about 7 million tons this year, which is nearly 1/3 less than that of last year's about 10000000 tons.

According to the current spot price level, the cotton grade four or more that meets the storage requirements may be sold to the State Reserve.

Cotton reserves in 2011/2012 totaled 3 million 120 thousand tons, estimated that the amount of cotton storage and storage in 2012/2013 would be as high as 3 million tons.

The state purchases and stores at a high price in order to protect the interests of cotton farmers.

Although the temporary storage and purchase price in 2012 was higher than that of the previous year, the price of cotton planting has not yet reached the psychological expectations of cotton farmers due to the increase of planting costs, the high labor intensity of cotton seed and no subsidy. Next year, the cotton planting area will continue to show a downward trend.

Insiders said that at present, the national reserve price basically established the top price, and the price of new cotton will fluctuate around the purchasing and storage price, but the possibility is higher than that of the reserve price.

If the comparative income of seed cotton can not keep up with other crops, the possibility of planting area will decrease.

Throw away the store and end the cold season

Approved by the State Council, since September 3rd, the China cotton reserve management company has put some cotton reserves in the national cotton trading market.

The reserve cotton for the market is mainly based on Xinjiang cotton, which is temporarily collected and stored in 2011. According to the domestic market price of 18500 yuan / ton (standard class) as the base price, it carries on the bidding through the national cotton trading market trading platform.

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The first week of storage (7 ~9 September 3rd), the national storage cotton was 211323 tons, 144863 tons, the paction ratio of 68.55%, the average grade of 3.04, the average weighted price of 18600 yuan / ton, 328 grade paction price 18647 yuan / ton.

Over the next three weeks, the turnover rate did not exceed 50%, just 32.01%, 46.32% and 45.21%.

As of September 29, 2012, the cotton reserve delivery plan was completed, with a total turnover of 1043345.05 tons and a turnover of 493741.03 tons, with a cumulative turnover of 47.32%, with an average grade of 3.15 and an average weighted price of 18530 yuan / ton, with a turnover of 328 yuan and 18640 yuan / ton.

In the early September, new cotton had not yet been listed in large quantities, and the market was in the stage of being out of green. There was a shortage of high-grade cotton. The main purpose was to meet the needs of textile cotton and increase market supply.

However, due to low import cotton prices and low demand for downstream, most textile and cotton enterprises have a rational attitude towards this.

Wang Gong, general manager of Huamao stock company, told reporters that state dumping is a good measure to stabilize the market and support the textile industry.

However, the low turnover rate indicates that many textile enterprises are still on the sidelines. The main reason is that the textile industry has not yet been out of the woods. The current price of throwing and storing is still much higher than that of imported cotton, which is still a great pressure on cotton enterprises.

Xie Haiqing, deputy general manager of Shandong Wei Qiao Venture Group Co., Ltd. said that enterprises mainly participated in the bidding of cotton reserves according to production needs.

Although the market environment has improved slightly at the recent stage, the future situation is still uncertain. Enterprises are cautious about purchasing cotton and basically follow suit.

Due to the weaker demand for cotton in textile enterprises, the cautious attitude of enterprises, the more stringent payment conditions for auction of cotton reserves, and the lack of financial strength of some enterprises with purchasing demand, the turnover rate of the dumping and storage is not as good as expected, and the paction price is also mild.

Policy factors support cotton price strengthening

Considering that the new cotton market will soon come into focus, the supply of cotton will also increase, and the sale of national cotton reserves will stop in September 29th.

The reserve price is 18500 yuan / ton, which is 1900 yuan / ton lower than the state's purchase and storage price.

Such negative factors will disappear as soon as the storage is stopped.

In addition, the issuance of import quotas has always been a bad sword hanging on the cotton market, but the relevant departments of the national development and Reform Commission said it would no longer issue cotton import quotas in the near future.

Therefore, the negative factors for the issuance of quotas can basically be ruled out.

In view of the current situation, most of the cotton with grade four or above is eligible for storage. In the late market supply, the pulling force on cotton price will gradually increase, and the spot price of cotton will be raised.

Therefore, it is very likely that cotton prices will move upward.

Under the traction of storage and purchase policy, cotton prices will be strengthened.

The latest monthly outlook of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said that in September, international cotton prices fell slightly, while China's cotton prices rose slightly.

This may indicate the direction of price in the next few months. In 2012/2013, China's cotton prices will be supported by the policy of purchasing and storage, while the accumulation of inventory pressure and weak demand in other parts of the world will drag down the international cotton price.

As the cotton import quota is no longer issued, if domestic cotton prices continue to rise, it will undoubtedly add to the difficulties for the struggling textile enterprises.

Cotton spinning enterprises can not freely purchase cotton according to the international market price, and it is difficult to choose cotton under the current national protective price to compete with counterparts in the international market.

Enterprises require the state to relax the control of cotton purchase and sale, and the demand for raw materials prices will be higher and higher according to market regulation.

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Regarding this, Zhang Xianbin, director of the State Economic and Trade Commission of the national development and Reform Commission, recently said that under the current conditions, there is no better policy to replace the policy of collecting and storing, and the establishment of the temporary purchase and storage price mainly focuses on the long term and is conducive to the development of the whole industry.

The direction of the new year's national policy has been clear, and the temporary purchase and storage policy will be unswervingly implemented.

He believes that the future direction of China's textile industry must first meet domestic demand, and textile production capacity will continue to expand rapidly, once the market changes will be difficult to cope with.

We should make use of this opportunity to achieve real estate through structural adjustment.

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China's raw material costs and labor costs have increased rigidly. If textile and clothing exports are still high staple goods, it will be difficult to continue. We should give full play to the advantages of deep processing links, and enhance the competitiveness of the textile industry by improving the added value and brand.