July 4, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 2 days, domestic

Spot prices were driven up by Zheng cotton.

In the case of no cotton price, the possibility of dumping or increasing import quotas is less likely.

3. imported cotton: in July 3rd, the price of China's main cotton imports increased by 0.7 cents, and the price of long staple cotton also increased.

After the cotton price hit bottom, the purchasing intention of cotton enterprises has been enhanced, but it has been tied up by quotas.

With the embarrassment of the situation, the performance of import contracts is becoming more and more difficult.

4.USDA: in June 29th, the US Department of Agriculture released the actual coverage area report. In 2012, the US cotton sown area was 76 million 758 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% over the same period last year, of which the sown area of upland cotton was 75 million 330 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% compared with that of the previous year, and the planting area of Pima cotton was 1 million 428 thousand mu, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year.

5.ICE cotton: on the 3 day of July, the US cotton continued to rise slightly. In December, it closed close to the 40 day moving average. It may hit 74.8 cents and impact the 60 day moving average in the near future.

Summary:

Several important results of the recent EU summit are more important news, though the main indicators of China's PMI industry continue to perform poorly.

However, the cotton and cotton cotton products will inevitably be affected by the external commodities in a good atmosphere.

From the operational level, the US cotton continued to rise slightly on the 3 th of July and close to the 40 day moving average in December. It is likely to impact 74.8 cents and impact the 60 day moving average in the near future.

Zheng cotton 1301 has been standing on the 40 day moving average on the probability of not much, in the short term or will continue to challenge the 19600 pressure, if the challenge is successful, continue to attack.

However, judging from the general trend, Zheng's cotton system will rebound and the upper space will be restricted by the fundamentals.

[a German futures] good peripheral cotton Zheng continued to rebound

CF1301 opened higher on Tuesday, and CF1301 closed more than 36.9 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19515 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, adding 5886 hand; in July 3rd, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.47 cents / pound, up 0.49 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13591 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14532 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 3rd news, ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday for fourth consecutive days, but it was worse than other commodities due to worries about global oversupply.

The ICE12 cotton contract rose 0.8% and the settlement price was 72.60 cents per pound.

In July 3rd, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 13440 tons, an increase of 5720 tons from the previous day, an increase of 1800 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 128320 tons.

On the 3 day, the opening of the market was different.

On the basic side, the weak data of manufacturing industry in China, the United States and Europe overnight brought investors back from the surprise of the EU summit. Various uncertainties continue to affect investment confidence in the future.

Judging from the current cotton situation, cotton growth is basically good. Later, we need to pay attention to the impact of weather changes on its yield. Cotton sales are still hard to say, and the price advantage of imported cotton will continue to impact domestic cotton prices. Downstream textile enterprises have increased their shutting down volume, and the poor consumer side is difficult to provide a strong rebound support for cotton prices.

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Zheng cotton rebounded on Tuesday, confirmed that the gap was recovered, and the next target was up to 19700 resistance.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19400-19800.

[MEIKO futures] industry support weak period cotton rising trend cautious

Overnight, in July 3rd, the ICE cotton futures contract rose 5 days in December, which is consistent with our judgement yesterday.

What is interesting is that the trend of the day is very similar to that of the previous trading day. After the sharp drop in the intraday trading volume, it has closed up, trading volume is not large, and competition is fierce.

The rise of Zheng cotton futures and the fall of the US dollar index created conditions for the rise of ICE cotton futures on that day.

News, after the Xinjiang autonomous region financial coordination report many times, recently the Ministry of Finance agreed to give the highway Xinjiang cotton also give freight subsidy.

The Department of Finance timely put forward reasonable proposals for the specific subsidy operation mode: the declaration and approval procedures of cotton and cotton textiles' pportation subsidies, and the capital appropriation procedures remain unchanged; the Ministry of Finance in Xinjiang, on the basis of the declaration and examination of the existing railway's cotton pportation subsidy, has increased the declaration and audit of the cotton road freight subsidy.

In the international market, in July 3rd, the price of China's main cotton imports increased by 0.7 cents, and the price of long staple cotton also increased.

After the cotton price hit bottom, the purchasing intention of cotton enterprises has been enhanced, but it has been tied up by quotas. The quota is insufficient to make cotton mills and textile mills in a difficult position. The import contracts have become increasingly difficult to perform.

The parties concerned pay close attention to the policy of the end of the year.

The domestic market, 3, the domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, although the long-term new year's policy of purchasing and storage support, but apparently the market did not find this support point, in the downstream can not see the pessimism of the market outlook, the spot price volume remains low.

Spot quotation, July 3rd, the US C/A cotton quotation is 90.80 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15249 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 93.55, the general trade port delivery price is 15676 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 93, the general trade port delivery price is 15599 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 84.10, the general trade port delivery price 14179 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19380 yuan / ton; the B index is 18444 yuan.

Market analysis, after the lifting of the macro risk warning, bulk commodities show a strong trend in the medium term, but cotton is not good enough for the overall consumption and consumption ability, and the offensive force is limited.

Overnight, the US cotton price continued to rise slightly, but it still did not get out of the bottom and waited for more information.

Zhengmian 19725-19820 pressure interval.

Operation, many single continue to hold, concern 19725-19820 pressure interval performance breakthrough trend see more.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton can still be more cautious when it falls sharply.

Main points: this year's global new flower area reduction is a foregone conclusion.

The domestic monetary policy was further relaxed, and the central bank bought a massive reverse repurchase of 143 billion on Tuesday.

External trend: New York July 3rd news, cotton futures rose fourth consecutive days on Tuesday, but due to fears of global oversupply, or worse than other commodities.

The cotton contract in December rose by 0.8%, and the settlement price was 72.60 cents per pound, holding the two week high point hit by the previous day. Because tomorrow is the National Day holiday of the United States, the market volume is reduced.

Cotton prices have been encouraged by the rally, and soybean prices have jumped to the highest level since 2008, as concerns about high temperatures damaged crops raised grain prices.

Early comment: new cotton continued to pick up, followed by grain rally, and technical side rebounded.

Domestic cotton spot prices have dropped slightly, and domestic and foreign cotton prices have been hanging upside down, resulting in the attractiveness of domestic cotton.

In the case of no cotton price, the possibility of dumping or increasing import quotas is smaller. The situation of downstream textile enterprises has not improved significantly, and the rate of start-up of some textile enterprises has continued to decline.

At present, the 1301 contract breaks through the short-term average system, suppresses and fills the gap in the early stage, receives three Lian Yang, and the MACD red column becomes longer, and Zheng cotton has a rebound demand in the short term.

But in the medium term, the key factors restricting the uplink of cotton prices, such as the weak demand for the downstream market, the poor domestic and foreign cotton prices and the uncertainty of the macro-economy, are also pressing down on cotton prices and paying attention to the changes in the fundamentals of the market.

Zheng cotton 1301 contract closed up, the period price rushed to the 19600 line after a fall, under the support of the 5 line, the short term is expected to continue the upward trend of shocks.