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Hong Hao: This Year'S Two Sessions Are Quite Different From Last Year'S Market.

2012/3/15 17:06:00 13

From yesterday morning's high jump in the stock market to the sharp fall of yesterday afternoon, it seemed to be misty and clear.

I will analyze the differences between the two sessions this year and last year, and we will understand:

First, this year's two sessions are compared with last year's market.

Last year's "two sessions" began at 2319 o'clock in July 2010, and the market ended at 3186 o'clock in November 2010. Then the market index returned to 2661 in January 2011. Last year's two sessions were actually a small rebound, from 2661 to 3067. The end of the market was one month after last year's two sessions.

Then it fell for 9 months.

In 2011, the two sessions were in fact a small escape from the market.

2012

Two sessions quotation

It started at 2132 o'clock in January 2012 and underestimated the value of a large number of blue chips. In the course of the rebound, the most important thing is that there is no clear mainstream hot spot rising. It is only a stock market guerrilla war. The attack has become the characteristic of the current round of rebound. This has never happened in the past 21 years of China's stock market rebound or rise. This shows that the main organizations are guilty and dare not to do more boldly. Therefore, the author repeatedly stressed that the current rally will be pressed into 2500 points, and when stocks point to 2500 points, they should strengthen their positions when launching attacks.

Two, the prime minister said, "this is probably the most difficult year."

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, said at a meeting of Chinese and foreign reporters in March 14th: "due to the European debt crisis and the shrinking external market, China's economy has downward pressure. This year is probably the most difficult year."

But in this case, China's economic growth is mainly due to structural adjustment.

This year, China's economic growth rate of over 8% has been reduced to 7 over the past year.

5%.

It shows that China's economic breakthrough in 2012 is difficult.

Three, the stock market expects 3.15 every day.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange launched the 3.15 investor service week 14.

General manager Song Liping of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange said on the same day that the phenomenon of blindly following the trend in the growth enterprise market is still outstanding. In recent years, the global economic integration has made many past isolated risk events easy to evolve into systemic risks.

China's capital market still has certain particularities, and the direct participation of individual investors is high. In the face of the low quality of Listed Companies in China's securities market, intermediaries and fund companies participate in the counterfeiting industry chain of listed companies, and the injured are always shareholders. How can China's stock market expect 3.15 every day?

Four. Monopoly in various industries has hindered China's economic development.

On the afternoon of March 14th, the report of the IMF representative in China said: if China is to weaken it through reform,

Monopoly industry

Protection in the long run may be about 10 times more than that without such measures.

"China should strive to promote reforms in the financial sector, the construction industry (the most labour intensive industries), pportation, education, health, telecommunications and public utilities."

The final conclusion of the report is, "if China carries out the de monopoly reform of the domestic market, China's per capita GDP will grow by 10 times in the long run.

More importantly, the growth of earnings mainly comes from the service sector. The substantial increase in per capita GDP will mainly come from TFP gains. "

In fact, everyone knows that monopoly and "inbreeding" seriously hamper the development of China's economy. However, it is difficult for China to break monopoly and open industries to introverts.

Five, the huge property bubble has depressed people's interest.

Premier Wen Jiabao said at yesterday's press conference: what is called?

housing price

Reasonable regression? I think reasonable housing prices should be to adapt housing prices to residents' income, and match prices with investment and reasonable profits.

Now I can tell you clearly that housing prices are far from returning to a reasonable price.

Therefore, regulation can not be relaxed.

If we relax, we will lose all our previous efforts and will cause chaos in the real estate market and will not be conducive to the long-term healthy and stable development of real estate.

The prime minister is very clear about that, but there are some so-called scholars who have taken the money from the real estate developers to talk about China's real estate without bubbles. Prices will not drop. In the face of a large number of vacant housing and huge property bubbles, developers and landlords will dare to compete with the central government in order to become selfish.

China's real estate bubble is not broken, the Chinese economy can not be pformed and upgraded, people's living standards can not be raised, prices can not be lowered, I hope that those who take the black money of real estate developers, a small number of so-called scholars have a conscience, do not give developers any accomplices.

To sum up, the two sessions of this year's market are different from last year. This is mainly due to the enormous development bottleneck of China's economy in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. The reform of all industries should be carried out in the deep water area. Taking the securities market as an example: President Guo Shuqing's determination is great, but the resistance of the interest groups is greater and the implementation is difficult.

The pformation and upgrading of China's economy is also a group of interest groups that are faced with monopoly, and the difficulty of reform can be imagined.

But in any case, China's stock market is still at a low level. At the moment, the cost of reform is the lowest. This year's economic pformation and upgrading is the best time. With the wisdom of the Chinese people, we must take a long view and make joint efforts to ensure that we can solve these problems.

After the market index pullback, short-term opportunities will be generated next week.