The Shanghai And Shenzhen Stock Markets Will Recover Their Losses In The Second Half Of The Year.

A few bad themes that led to the fall of the stock index in the first half of the year are either digesting or digesting. If the market has not yet foreseen the bad themes, the market will slowly build the bottom area and gradually restore the panic. In the second half of this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock markets will regain their land and return to a reasonable valuation range.

First of all, the most substantive theme is the hundreds of billions of financing of bank listed companies represented by ABC.

These financing have shaken people's normal valuation concept of listed companies, so that the listed companies' share price is lower than that of Hongkong and the world stock market, making the market index bear a downward trend under normal economic conditions.

In the second half of this year, with the Agricultural Bank's listing and several banks' refinancing implementation, the bad profit was gradually digested.

Secondly, another big bad interest this year is the judgement of macro tightening expectations since the beginning of the year.

In the first quarter of this year, the deposit reserve rate was raised three times in a row, and the media reports on inflation expectations and commodity price increases.

Since June, with the fall of international commodity prices, domestic iron and steel prices and iron ore prices have stabilized and dropped, especially the real estate new deal effect, inflation expectations are decreasing, and further tightening is expected to decline.

Although the CPI index is still high in May, the probability of going down to the next half of the year is greater.

Five or June is likely to be the peak of the CPI index for the whole year, which makes the further deflation expected to fail.

This is the basis for the rise of the market.

Third, the effect of the new deal on the stock market has lasted for six months, and the share price of real estate has fallen.

The final blow is the official appearance of the "property tax", which may be out of date when the information is officially announced.

From the logical inference, whether the state will levy "property tax" will give a clear statement and can not be dragged along.

This negative pressure on the stock market has been fulfilled.

Fourth, the media reported that the SFC's trading rules for stock index futures and fund managers' participation in stock index futures were revised or detailed rules. This is a more profitable factor for stock index, and the negative effect of stock index futures on market index is reduced.

Fifth, we worry too much about the "two bottom" of the world economy and the European sovereign credit crisis.

The United States, Japan, Germany and major economies have recovered steadily.

The most panic in Europe's sovereign credit crisis is China's stock investors. The residents of Greece and other debt crisis countries are still relaxed and spending. They also want to strike against wage cuts.

It is inexplicable that Chinese investors will be drawn from the European sovereign crisis.

By the end of June, most of the stock commentators forecast the stock price trend in the first half of the year, and found that they did not forecast a drop of over 25% in the first half of the year.

Most stock commentators are not optimistic about the trend in the second half of the year, and most investors are also pessimistic.

However, this expectation is often contrary to the actual trend.

This is the fascinating stock market.