National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI Ran Smoothly In September, PPI Fell Less Year On Year And Rose Month On Month

——Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets CPI and PPI data in September 2023

The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for September 2023. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI rose month on month and remained flat year on year

In September, the consumer market continued to recover, and CPI continued to rise month on month. However, affected by the higher base of comparison in the same period of last year, the CPI turned from rising to flat year on year.

On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.06 percentage points.

The market supply was sufficient before the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day this year, and the food price increase was slightly lower than the historical average over the same period. In the food sector, the school season is approaching, and the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs are rising by 3.3% and 3.2% respectively; At the end of the closed season, the supply increased, and the prices of shrimp, crab and marine fish decreased by 2.6% and 0.8% respectively; The prices of pork, fresh fruit, poultry and other food products were basically stable. Non food prices rose 0.2%, the same as last month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.14 percentage points.

Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.5%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that of the previous month, of which the domestic gasoline price rose by 2.4% due to the upward trend of international oil prices; The autumn clothes were renewed in the new season, and the clothing price rose by 0.9%. The service price increased by 0.1% last month to decrease by 0.1%, of which the travel at the end of summer vacation decreased, and the prices of air tickets, hotel accommodation and tourism decreased by 12.6%, 5.5% and 3.4% respectively; The price of education services rose by 1.4% when the new semester began.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI was flat from 0.1% increase last month. Among them, the food price dropped by 3.2%, 1.5 percentage points more than that of last month, mainly due to the higher food price compared with the same period last year, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.60 percentage points.

In food, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables decreased by 22.0% and 6.4% respectively, with a decrease of 4.1 and 3.1 percentage points respectively, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.51 percentage points in total, accounting for nearly 90% of the total decrease in food prices; The price of mutton and edible oil decreased by 5.1% and 3.1% respectively, both of which increased; The prices of aquatic products and fresh fruits decreased by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively. Non food prices rose 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, affecting CPI growth of about 0.57 percentage points. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods fell by 0.3%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, of which the price of gasoline fell by 1.2%, narrowing by 3.4 percentage points. The service price rose by 1.3%, the same increase as last month, among which the price of air tickets, tourism and hotel accommodation rose by 14.0%, 12.3% and 10.4% respectively, all of which fell back; The price of education services rose by 1.8%, an increase to some extent.

It is estimated that in the year-on-year change of CPI in September, the tail lifting impact was about - 0.2 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points last month; The new impact of price changes this year is about 0.2 percentage points, and last month was - 0.1 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year on year, the same increase as last month.

2、 The month on month increase of PPI expanded and the year-on-year decrease narrowed

In September, affected by factors such as the gradual recovery of industrial demand and the continued rise of international crude oil prices, the month on month increase of PPI expanded and the year-on-year decline narrowed.

On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.5%, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points; The price of means of living rose by 0.1%, the same as last month.

International crude oil prices continued to rise, driving the prices of domestic oil and natural gas exploitation industry up 4.1%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries up 3.1%. Improved demand and tight supply pushed up the prices of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries by 1.2%, and coal mining and washing industries by 1.1%. The prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries were flat.

In addition, the price of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports and entertainment goods manufacturing industry rose 0.7%, the price of agricultural and sideline food processing industry rose 0.6%, and the price of textile industry rose 0.2%; The manufacturing price of computer machine rose 0.7%, and the manufacturing price of intelligent consumer equipment rose 0.5%; The manufacturing price of lithium-ion batteries fell by 1.5%, and the manufacturing price of new energy vehicles fell by 0.1%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 2.5%, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 3.0%, with a decrease of 0.7 percentage points; The price of means of living fell by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point.

The price decline of major industries narrowed: the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 15.6%, 0.6 percentage points; The chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry declined by 7.1%, 3.3 percentage points lower; The oil, coal and other fuel processing industry declined by 6.7%, 2.9 percentage points lower; Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 5.0%, 1.6 percentage points; The oil and gas exploitation industry declined by 3.3%, 7.3 percentage points lower.

The total impact of the above five industries on PPI fell by about 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for nearly 60% of the total decline. In addition, the prices of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports and entertainment goods manufacturing industry rose by 5.7%, and the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 2.7%; The manufacturing price of new energy vehicles fell by 4.5%, and the price of computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing fell by 1.8%.

It is estimated that among the 2.5% year-on-year decline in PPI in September, the tail lifting impact was about - 0.2 percentage points, and last month was - 0.3 percentage points; The new impact of price changes this year is about - 2.3 percentage points, and last month was - 2.7 percentage points.