The Focus Of Market Attention: The Price And Way Of The National Cotton Reserves

Since March, domestic cotton futures have been widely fluctuated, and the main fluctuation range is 10045-10790 yuan / ton, due to the weakening of the dollar.

In the context of rising demand, investors returned to their shorts last night, and US cotton continued to pick up. ICE5 cotton contract rose 0.64 cents, up 1.07%, to 60.71 cents a pound, to nearly two months' high.

ICE cotton center of gravity increased simultaneously, mainly due to tight supply prospects and commodities.

Bullish, the impact of investors' short positions, plus the fundamentals, the market demand for high-quality cotton resources still support, but based on the overall supply and demand pattern is still no substantial change, the market outlook is expected to increase the space is limited.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton continued trading, closing, zhengmian 1609 main contract closed at 10880 yuan / ton, rose 270 yuan / ton, futures prices rose to provide a good support for the market.

Judging from the current domestic cotton spot market, based on the basic digestion of reserve cotton at a low price, the location of the final output of the reserve cotton is basically determined.

The willingness to raise will support the spot market as a whole.

Recently, the average price of seed and lint in the domestic cotton market has increased overall. The current cotton price in the Yellow River is more obvious than that in the cotton market. The average price of cotton seed in the cotton area of the region is at 5%-15% or near the end of the market. The average price of the three seed cotton market is near 2.9 yuan / Jin, and the average price of the four grade seed cotton market is 2.8 yuan / Jin. The average price of the three grade cotton seed trade is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, and the average price of four cotton linkings is 10900-11000 yuan / ton. Although the cotton enterprises basically maintain the balance of production and marketing, the market price is high and the profits of the manufacturers are reduced. It is understood that

However, the quality cotton resources in Xinjiang market have been gradually digested, and the market supply main body still emphasizes the proportion of medium and low grade cotton. The low price expectation of reserve cotton still constitutes a certain pressure on the sales of Xinjiang cotton. It is expected that the situation of most cotton enterprises' profit inversion will not change fundamentally.

The recent sharp drop in cotton prices between home and abroad is also worth the attention of the market. It is understood that last week the cotton price difference between the inside and outside of the market dropped sharply. The main reason is that the price of imported cotton has been lower than before. The price of imported cotton has been decreasing. The price advantage of imported cotton has begun to decline. Recently, except for a small amount of price adjustment of Australian cotton and the new year's US cotton sporadic customs clearance, the market volume is basically unlimited. The author thinks that the domestic spot cotton price has stabilized, but the demand for textile enterprises is not improving.

According to the author statistics, from the 1% tariff accounting, the average price difference between inside and outside cotton is 773 yuan / ton.

After entering the middle of April, the price and way of the national cotton reserves are still the focus of the market. Combined with the current supply pattern of the domestic cotton spot market, the space for the cotton prices to go down again has been basically blocked due to the lack of resources in the mainland and the pressure on cotton enterprises, so the proportion of the middle and lower cotton in the Xinjiang cotton industry is still on the high side. Although the quality resources are sold at a very high price, it is difficult to form a large-scale guideline.

The author thinks that the negative effect of reserve cotton is slightly weakened, and the quality of cotton spinning is not optimistic. Under the background of the shortage of quality cotton resources and the continuous reduction of cotton supply in the new year, it is expected that the speculation in the aftermarket of cotton market will continue.