Goldman Sachs: Russia'S Central Bank Raising Interest Rate Is Not Enough To Save Rouble

Russia's central bank announced interest rate hike, but ruble plummeted and hit a new low.

In addition, the recent default risk in Russia has risen to its highest level since April 2009.

Goldman Sachs believes that the rate hike is not enough to prevent the decline of the rouble, and Russia may take non sterilized intervention.

The central bank announced a 100 basis point increase in interest rates on Thursday night.

Analysts expect the central bank to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points, at most 250 basis points.

Goldman Sachs expects to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, while the forward interest rate agreement (FRA) implies that the market is expected to raise interest rates by 200 basis points.

Goldman Sachs said in its report:

This

Inflation is rising sharply in recent months.

Expected dominant.

Russia's central bank expects inflation to rise to 10% at the end of the year, and to the first quarter of next year, and then drop in the two quarter and the second half.

This expectation is very similar to ours.

This means that in order to prevent inflation from deteriorating further, the Central Bank of Russia will continue to maintain tight monetary policy.

We maintain our view that the Central Bank of Russia will maintain high interest rates to the first quarter of next year and start a cycle of interest rate cuts in the two quarter as inflation falls.

We believe that the Central Bank of Russia will continue to adjust its benchmark interest rate according to the expected changes in inflation and inflation, and may use other tools to stabilize the ruble exchange rate.

Possible tools include non sterilized intervention, which interfered with the foreign exchange market and tightened domestic liquidity while limiting the supply of major lending instruments.

Russia suffered huge capital outflows and oil prices fell due to Western sanctions imposed by the Ukraine crisis. The rouble has fallen more than 40% since the beginning of the year, and has continuously refreshed its historical low.

In the near future, Russia finally failed to withstand the collapse of the exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow began to sell gold reserves.

The Central Bank of Russia yesterday announced that its gold reserves had been reduced by $4 billion 300 million a week.

Last week, the Russian Central Bank announced that it would sell currency reserves to maintain exchange rates.

In the third quarter of this year, Russia has more gold holdings than any other country in the world.

After Russia was sanctioned on the Ukraine issue, it planned to buy gold in reserve to make possible a long-term economic war against the West.

Over the past 10 years, Russia's gold reserves have tripled.

Until recently, Russia has not used its huge gold reserves.

Recently, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the impact of sanctions, the ruble continued to depreciate against the US dollar, and the Central Bank of Russia had to sell gold reserves to deal with inflation and the rouble downward.

Related links:

Turning A shares will reveal that this is an interesting phenomenon in every bull market.

For example, in 2009, "Ye Rongtian" was popular in maverick city. When the "Ye Rongtian" was most popular, its blog hits exceeded 100 million times, and its lectures were often hard to find.

However, the good times didn't last long. In 2010, the market turned, the camouflage of "Ye Rongtian" was punctured.

As Zhao Xiaoyun, when he returned from abroad in 2010, he wrapped it again with "Shen Shen", which is different from the former. Judging from the market trend in 2011 and 2012, Zhao Xiaoyun is still accurate. "2011 terrorist big C wave is coming", "2012 will explore 1700 points".

But judging the general trend is one thing and concrete operation is another matter.

Zhao Xiaoyun's management fund was forced to liquidation after its establishment for over a year.

Speculation is easy and difficult.

If we take a look at the rankings of private equity over the years, we will inevitably suffer from dramatic fluctuations in product performance and company infighting within a few years after winning the private placement championship.

Whether it was the new investment of value before, or the Swiss investment in 2011, or the Silver Sail investment in 2012, it was hard to escape this curse.

In 2010, the private champion Chang Shi Shan, which managed the WorldCom 1, won a private champion with a 96.16% yield in that year. But in the following year, the bad luck followed, on the one hand, the company's internal strife, and the company's shareholders struggled. On the other hand, the product was extremely tragic, and its 3 products were finally forced to liquidate in 2012.

For example, in 2009, Luo Weiguang's new value 2 phase won the private placement champion with a 190% yield, but then there was a tragic Waterloo.

From 2011 to 2012, the new value of its products all suffered from Waterloo's performance, and half of its products approached the liquidation line.

Reaffirming the fact that "living" is the absolute truth.